TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b44…d8debacked Pistons58c2,024$1,174 inWon+$85076653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Magic42c2,000$840 inLost-$8402,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Magic38c1,306$500 inLost-$50026131%81 W · 180 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6de1backed Magic24c1,012$241 inLost-$240.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pistons68c975.01$660 inWon+$315.4889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Magic43c653.19$279 inLost-$278.9169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons72c600$434 inWon+$165.62,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Pistons75c347.51$259 inWon+$88.446959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Magic30c199.33$60 inLost-$59.840541%166 W · 239 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pistons74c173.75$128 inWon+$45.4752861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic42c92.12$39 inLost-$38.693,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Magic24c90$21 inLost-$21.1533556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cac…2cfbbacked Pistons60c72.82$44 inWon+$29.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pistons75c56$42 inWon+$13.851,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…7965backed Magic44c52.19$23 inLost-$22.856325.4%16 W · 47 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Pistons74c37.5$28 inWon+$9.6710761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Pistons63c33.89$21 inWon+$12.47572%54 W · 21 L+11.7wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Pistons75c28.91$22 inWon+$7.2359255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0e…accebacked Pistons70c17.1$12 inWon+$5.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.