TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 191.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,149 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfe0…a3fabacked Under2c2,222$44 inLost-$44.44450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+116.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under49c202.1$100 inLost-$99.6989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over50c180$91 inWon+$89.2869848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under22c90$20 inLost-$20.12,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed Over60c80$48 inWon+$32.0239864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e60…449abacked Under21c60$13 inLost-$12.53135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebc…01c6backed Under29c51.14$15 inLost-$14.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…fc49backed Under36c50$18 inLost-$17.951741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over69c44.22$31 inWon+$13.6823741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Over73c38.65$28 inWon+$10.322871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Over78c38.46$30 inWon+$8.4620055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe626…92b5backed Under46c35$16 inLost-$16.093345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over78c30.2$24 inWon+$6.6655751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over71c24.83$18 inWon+$7.1962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd7…c673backed Over78c24.29$19 inWon+$5.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705e…be0abacked Over80c22.53$18 inWon+$4.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4894…2c94backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick35cpaid-62.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$1037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Over77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.487153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Over73c14.51$11 inWon+$3.9113950.4%70 W · 69 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.