TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,847 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over18c9,894$1,757 inWon+$8,137.2834255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Over6c6,622$397 inWon+$6,224.365540%22 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Over15c6,420$931 inWon+$5,48989444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over6c4,635$278 inWon+$4,356.918835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Over54c3,136$1,694 inWon+$1,442.693540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over23c2,913$663 inWon+$2,249.8276653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under46c2,739$1,265 inLost-$1,265.1569848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Under52c715.38$372 inLost-$3724531.1%14 W · 31 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over23c629.9$148 inWon+$481.882,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Over10c439$43 inWon+$395.8713036.2%47 W · 83 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7805…1baebacked Over79c367.73$292 inWon+$75.553767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Under77c316.45$244 inLost-$243.6721574.4%160 W · 55 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.317643.4%33 W · 43 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Under49c185.11$90 inLost-$9011850.8%60 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Over43c175.4$75 inWon+$100.420055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Over50c126$63 inWon+$6333945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f9…2b7bbacked Over41c122.63$50 inWon+$72.632347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over52c98.08$51 inWon+$47.0821642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e60…449abacked Over12c89.99$10 inWon+$79.493135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over17c87.11$15 inWon+$72.3923741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over28c66.43$19 inWon+$47.8327463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Over32c63.51$21 inWon+$42.9738751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under26c54.28$14 inLost-$14.3662047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over54c53.7$29 inWon+$24.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed Under21c50$11 inLost-$10.56543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under39c49.25$19 inLost-$19.1614860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…0675backed Over43c46.02$20 inWon+$26.354645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a9…565cbacked Over52c35.29$18 inWon+$16.941181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc7c…666cbacked Under50c34$17 inLost-$178045%36 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12c…9cc9backed Over54c32.74$18 inWon+$15.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae6…269dbacked Over32c31.56$10 inWon+$21.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0457…4f8ebacked Under52c23.43$12 inLost-$12.181942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Under55c22.83$13 inLost-$12.5510651.9%55 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Under80c19.31$15 inLost-$15.4521046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.