TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,131 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over48c2,762$1,313 inWon+$1,448.9750346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under52c2,052$1,077 inLost-$1,076.942,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2567…fc9dbacked Over52c581.57$300 inWon+$281.572045%9 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Under52c480.61$250 inLost-$2505935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c440.17$211 inLost-$211.282,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under53c166$88 inLost-$87.987451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe999…199bbacked Over50c99.05$50 inWon+$49.052548%12 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Under53c94.34$50 inLost-$5014844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under49c81.93$41 inLost-$40.551,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Over46c54.35$25 inWon+$29.3514357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under52c52.87$28 inLost-$27.5240546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c42.2$21 inLost-$21.137665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under50c40.87$20 inLost-$20.4436749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f9…2b7bbacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$202347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5325…c31dbacked Under54c35.98$19 inLost-$19.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over50c30$15 inWon+$1537848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8e…6461backed Under54c30$16 inLost-$16.240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3e7…a322backed Under55c25.37$14 inLost-$146157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.