Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc404fb23d6b35656c2334ea3720d9121d1615d5a48fceab3af4f9c9bcc89d149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 441.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 439.84$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.89 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 309.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 228.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 44c | 207.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 191.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 169.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 166.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 163.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 65c | 154.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 151.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 36c | 142.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 125.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 53c | 119.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b37…3a72backed Yes | 41c | 116.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 109.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 75c | 101.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…c68abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 47c | 95.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 42c | 93.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 44c | 90.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 89.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 49c | 88.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 75.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 62c | 70.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…3c86backed Yes | 44c | 70.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 61.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 53c | 55.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…9897backed Yes | 44c | 49.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 49.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 47.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 46.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 53c | 46.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 44.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 41.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 29c | 36.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 41c | 36.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 51c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 32.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 30.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 50c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 46c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 60c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 69c | 22.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 77c | 17.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7862…bdfcbacked No | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.