Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472854baa974a437d1bc720271537ba970f979411cab5fa431a597ec24d7da7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,501$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,204$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 478.77$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 340.13$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 327.17$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 314.1$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 311.74$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 284.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 40c | 267.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 252.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 40c | 249.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 239.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 233$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 228.56$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 222.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 17c | 202.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 6c | 192.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 56c | 189.77$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 172.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 155.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 111.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 55c | 98.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 24c | 95.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 78c | 94.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 89.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 82.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 61c | 82.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 82.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 46c | 80.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 56c | 79.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 77.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 63c | 66.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 61.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 59.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 32c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 53.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 30c | 52.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 48.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 38c | 48.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 47.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 42c | 46.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 44c | 46.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 43.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked Yes | 39c | 40.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 38.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 38.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 38c | 36.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 35.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 34.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 39c | 34.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 31.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 51c | 22.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 73c | 21.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 72c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 59c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.