TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c1,501$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.61,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes42c1,204$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c478.77$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.782,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c340.13$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.852,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes38c327.17$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9560523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c314.1$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.534,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No63c311.74$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.511,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No52c284.5$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.292,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes40c267.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8377555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c252.88$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes40c249.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7518555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes42c239.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c233$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.542,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c228.56$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.424,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes39c222.23$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.671,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes17c202.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5356322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes6c192.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3217511.4%20 W · 155 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f88…5f64backed No56c189.77$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c172.78$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.434,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes7c155.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes43c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c140$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No54c111.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.791,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No55c98.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.666660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes24c95.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236350.8%32 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes78c94.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.041540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No62c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.384,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No68c89.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.071,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c82.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No61c82.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.513959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c82.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes46c80.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.019345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes56c79.4$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3418650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c77.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.343,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No63c66.93$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.322,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes41c61.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0162555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No56c59.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No32c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes62c55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3457747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c53.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.712,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…932cbacked Yes30c52.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.764814.6%7 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes22c48.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.482,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No38c48.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7413337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c47.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.014,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes42c46.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.465133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes44c46.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4754656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No36c43.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0117…fd3bbacked Yes39c40.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.041442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes37c40.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.042,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c38.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.15,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No58c38.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0768867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42aa…7d26backed Yes38c36.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.948246.3%38 W · 44 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No59c35.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.591,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c34.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.756,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes39c34.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.282,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes59c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No55c31.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes40c30.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.943,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes41c29.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes38c28.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes44c27.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210166.3%67 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes40c27.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9116440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c25.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7693…c40fbacked Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes51c22.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5516036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes73c21.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.021,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No51c20.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.426067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.227248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No72c19.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3411859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No59c18.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed No60c16.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6719559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No66c16.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5327169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.