Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef4512f802bce965ff97184aae2e425e6031188a764960915be936d50e3b64dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 33c | 13,075$4,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,734.05 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 27c | 5,215$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.28 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 75c | 3,006$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.96 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 76c | 2,262$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.94 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,950$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 72c | 1,813$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.67 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 76c | 1,600$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.54 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.83 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 78c | 1,107$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.13 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 1,098$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 66c | 887.84$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.16 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 797.06$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.53 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 17c | 611.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.82 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 71c | 535$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.85 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 54c | 524.81$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.95 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 46c | 419.72$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.42 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 28c | 344.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.67 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 309.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 72c | 292.35$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 272.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 35c | 269.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 25c | 264$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 69c | 224.91$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 41c | 221.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 74c | 205$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.41 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 156$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked Yes | 76c | 155.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…2890backed No | 22c | 151.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +130%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 128.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 52c | 121.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 111.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 15c | 100.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 20c | 94.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 17c | 94.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 53c | 89.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…2810backed Yes | 79c | 85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed No | 17c | 84.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 82.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 15c | 81.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 35c | 76.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d47…912abacked Yes | 77c | 64.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 20c | 62.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +80%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 62.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 18c | 62.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 57.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 73c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…7cc0backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 46c | 38.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 43c | 38.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 44c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 32.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 30.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed Yes | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 48c | 27.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked No | 41c | 26.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 71c | 25.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…b141backed No | 56c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af8…d08ebacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 73c | 18.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 77c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 77c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Ashleigh Rogers be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will G Rick be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Jeanette Cass be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?Yes won
- Will Randy Miller be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.