Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d7524166c54db9c36fcdab6eafd774e2c512b1505cc5fd7d9478ba556ab929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 51c | 3,446$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.47 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 35c | 2,503$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.45 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 58c | 2,373$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.95 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 7c | 1,334$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 65c | 942.63$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.75 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 26c | 902.35$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 70c | 771.65$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 26c | 771.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 17c | 464.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.92 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed No | 35c | 461.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 18c | 431$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.4 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 20c | 299.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 23c | 266.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.84 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 38c | 236.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 75c | 204.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 188$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 145$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 71c | 145$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 143.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 137.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 136$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 123.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 25c | 117.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 72c | 113.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 93.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 86.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…1862backed No | 77c | 78.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 23c | 68.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 25c | 66.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 61.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 44c | 56.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 67c | 49.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 64c | 38.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 35.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 76c | 32.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 32.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 41c | 25.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 18.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 72c | 18.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 78c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Ashleigh Rogers be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will G Rick be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Jeanette Cass be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Randy Miller be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.