Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b09b90aa9824b600b1466ac87fc6ea44b5fc2a4e9e1bcf72ffe2662bdc96063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,562$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.2 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 566$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 44c | 553.57$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 475.31$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 374.85$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 346.74$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…b9f8backed Yes | 45c | 334.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 312.76$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 307$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 227$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 214$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 191.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 40c | 184.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 181.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 55c | 133.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 129.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 129.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 124.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 122.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 62c | 113.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 37c | 107.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 106.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 95.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 90.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 89.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked No | 48c | 85.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 39c | 77.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 76.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 30c | 61.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 68c | 58.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 52.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 50.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 50.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 40c | 45.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 43.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 41.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…99a7backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 39c | 35.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 39c | 35.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 37c | 35.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 34.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 40c | 28.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 46c | 25.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 25.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 54c | 24.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 57c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 55c | 18.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.