Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b65272cd45e70aadc2b892acae9c40f0963a97a601565bc549e8c2adaee3b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,733$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 455.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 374.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.91 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 43c | 365.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 299.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 14c | 274$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 13c | 260$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 240.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 196$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 180$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 166.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 20c | 152$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 146.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 136.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 121.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 15c | 121.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 67c | 109.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 75c | 102.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 30c | 82.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 80.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 63.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 62.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 50.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 50.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 35c | 48.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 24c | 43.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 27.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 20.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 78c | 16.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.