AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40d5a00de899f92bb87acd8b5fe7e1871bdbde3c7c5278589a28104a5ad6e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5ba…5b5ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,010$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 21c | 859.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 11c | 556.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 60c | 446.11$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.09 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 34c | 406.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 38cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 63c | 309.06$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 59c | 299.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 18c | 269.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 56c | 209.97$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…7537backed Yes | 51c | 183.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 57c | 127.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +196.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 68c | 105.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 94.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…a0d3backed Yes | 75c | 93.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 79c | 74.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 66.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…7901backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 38c | 36.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 50c | 31.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6b…597cbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 58c | 29.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 60c | 28.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?this page
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.05T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800 by July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.