Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc466c3a46c1d207efd0de684b4b9b283d34b27ad0fe0c9300e096eb67651ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,481$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 458.78$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 378.4$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 245.81$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 226.49$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 34c | 164.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 143.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 138.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 120.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 119.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 113.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 106.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 78.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 65c | 73.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 69.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 60c | 64.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 59.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 56.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 55.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 40c | 52.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 79c | 50.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 50.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 63c | 47.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 44.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 33.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 43c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 39c | 29.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 58c | 23.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 23.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 61c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 65c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 77c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.