Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a060879cb80f91f57bb62a6be7cdc6667c541eabce1ec578dc44340a344325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 1,456$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.4 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 671.57$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 336.59$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 255.14$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 8c | 236.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 236.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 36c | 214$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 171$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 156.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 13c | 154.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 147.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 127.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…8990backed Yes | 33c | 119.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +82%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 119.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 100.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 51c | 70.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 59.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 36c | 52.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 52.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 38c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 46.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 45.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 42.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 41.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 40.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 34c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 38.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 35.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 55c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 41c | 27.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 64c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.