Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8bf42eb2dfbbb35d40d2a30e2db6302da24cd8bfe8c9fd57df690898706c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,131$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 794.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 16c | 731.87$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 38c | 515.61$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 443.78$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 21c | 433.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.61 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 3c | 420.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 3c | 416.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 312.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 267.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 148.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 143.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 8c | 139.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 11c | 138.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 20c | 131.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 23c | 112.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 17c | 106.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 86.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 80.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…8990backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +82%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 78.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 18c | 58.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 38.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 36.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 35.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 30.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 30.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 48c | 29.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 26.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 19.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.