Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3a8bbabfa3069a5301ecbdcf5defcdff10b6c2dc7ad2a58b2805cc90f02770f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 29c | 244.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 25c | 195$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed No | 77c | 190.52$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 164.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 153.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…a867backed Yes | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 131$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f2…2aebbacked No | 77c | 129.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 27c | 118.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 112.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 107$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 24c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Yes | 48c | 82.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 75.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 32c | 64.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 57.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…dd36backed Yes | 27c | 56.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 35.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed Yes | 34c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 76c | 30.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…ee5ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 25.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 74c | 25.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.