Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0820efdbc7813d883c71a348ca8109cc6d5b74feb928ba3992bf41ba45d663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 19c | 307.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.04 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 33c | 245$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…0673backed Yes | 32c | 238.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 35c | 203.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 194.41$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.81 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…dd36backed Yes | 18c | 169.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…a867backed Yes | 39c | 137$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…cf01backed Yes | 75c | 132.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 116$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 64c | 114.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 101.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 30c | 84.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked Yes | 36c | 60.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 49.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 80c | 41.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 22.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 70c | 20.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…a2f1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…244abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 13.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.