Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b2b04fad4f2fcdc755de5e24a2df5eae9705d3fc5a22c64ab1eac81e7f26e78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 63c | 412.88$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 66c | 231.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 53c | 89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 82.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 71c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 24c | 75.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…3e2bbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 49c | 48.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…fa58backed No | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.