Ukraine · resolved market
Trump alleges Georgia foreign election interference by July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dded3f1040797e1fde5e3db50d804bedcd73bbebb5a4ad3ef5a2d636ca88c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9536…7e50backed Yes | 16c | 4,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 639.54$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 18c | 206$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 70c | 160.71$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 21c | 142.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 113.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…bf08backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…eb45backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…689abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb83…96a7backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 71c | 41.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…b936backed Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed No | 39c | 30.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed No | 67c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.