Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05baa7f562f2b34387a0ad685e53aa03112817ad2a9f0161e11fd62c01da24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 573.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 283.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 182.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 145.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 103.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 29c | 90.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 40c | 72.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 63.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 62.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 59.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 53.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 50.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 64c | 47.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 63c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 41.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 41.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 37.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 57c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 76c | 28.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 26.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 62c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 56c | 20.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 63c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.