Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc287b3b25bbbf8b24f9634430e56399c89a3736f625b95e9c6e93dd9da950eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 221.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 221.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 74c | 216.81$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 179.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 168.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 25c | 155.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 127.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 111.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 109.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 101.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 71c | 98.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 40c | 95.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 85.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 76.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 74.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 69.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 69.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 64.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 64.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 62.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 58.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 58.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 58.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 69c | 58.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 53.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 49.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 48.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 48.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 44c | 45.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 42.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 36c | 40.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 39.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 36c | 37.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 50c | 37.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 34c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 30.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 41c | 29.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 51c | 27.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 47c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2319…905bbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 74c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 21.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 54c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 20.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 69c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.