Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a2e5b134cfaf500c64de95630d7f86476ee4983416fb743212c29c44550b5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked Yes | 61c | 345.39$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 78c | 259$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 214$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 25c | 185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 119.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 104.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed No | 22c | 98.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 73c | 93.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 71c | 72.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 33.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked No | 62c | 31.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed0a…708cbacked Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed Yes | 80c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.