Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03513b7f51e42e04f593b09a443e88ea42300282aad4e3e398f589354a72c0af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8469…dab0backed No | 22c | 235.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 115.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 73c | 87.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed No | 30c | 74.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 66.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 50.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 28c | 50.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked No | 62c | 31.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.