IPO · resolved market
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e6b13909031657cca5883c0594ad360a26220ccb01e7e9ddaa0c10294cd5f0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 21c | 476.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 371.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 351.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 63c | 258.26$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 243.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 13c | 152.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 43c | 116.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 46.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by July 31?this page
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $850B by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.