Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac6193879ecb7342fdebaaa08d0376de7e8cee84865153a36d45a643324b893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 7c | 860.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…e155backed No | 28c | 803.12$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 24c | 726.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 700$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…5629backed No | 35c | 648.84$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 244$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 73c | 205.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 26c | 188.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…ec2dbacked Yes | 80c | 184.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 179.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 17c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 136.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 25c | 135.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 56c | 134$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 108.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 24c | 100.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 90.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 28c | 89.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 79c | 85.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 28c | 78.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 78c | 73.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…ddcdbacked No | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 72c | 51.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 76c | 50.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf549…34d7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfa…c90ebacked Yes | 73c | 35.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 72c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…2d86backed Yes | 80c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…ba60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d2d3backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?this page
- Will Tom Horne be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.