Middle East · resolved market
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3cad133b8d86150594e8e8f92d94605aecd684da986b7bfc2de4305e65c5e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 2c | 3,251$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 2c | 2,673$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,096$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,620$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +317.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 7c | 184.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed No | 67c | 148.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +293.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…a954backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 100.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 19c | 83.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 19?this page
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Yes won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?No won
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.