Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b620651e048f3849b2293bf93499724a6f1a923449c0d90dd0ed521243e3fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 43c | 2,836$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.1 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,342$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 1,157$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 891.86$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 50c | 630.82$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 570.76$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 461.26$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 54c | 439.47$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 379.96$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 49c | 348.9$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 294.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 261.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 55c | 239$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 231.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 222$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 221.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 50c | 221.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 186.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 48c | 166.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 47c | 165.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 151.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 147.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 43c | 147.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 133.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 45c | 127.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 40c | 124.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 55c | 119.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 115.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 115.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 11c | 113.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 111.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…0062backed Yes | 41c | 107.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 104.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 42c | 95.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 48c | 94.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 93.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 91.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 80.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 78.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 59c | 76.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 74.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 72.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 75c | 66.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 65.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 61.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 47c | 60.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 29c | 54.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 50.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 53c | 44.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 46c | 43.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 42.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 65c | 39.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 55c | 37.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 36.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked Yes | 54c | 35.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 35.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…6108backed Yes | 55c | 33.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 49c | 32.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 49c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 30.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 46c | 25.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 49c | 24.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed Yes | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 21.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.