Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f2ad3a50111be1b790c74a3aa109f31900f262b30260ad12e139f852826b7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 71c | 1,898$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.59 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 658.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 500$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 35c | 420.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.36 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 409.94$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 53c | 396.55$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.74 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 355.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 323.91$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 251.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 27c | 214.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.85 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 210.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 207.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 58c | 195.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 194.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 180$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 21c | 171.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 164.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 156.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 28c | 150.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 149.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 143.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 131.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 28c | 127$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…8990backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +82%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 110.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 102$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 25c | 96.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes | 20c | 88.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 69c | 86.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 84.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 83.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 36c | 82.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 78.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 75.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 75.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 73.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 71.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 63.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 64c | 62.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed Yes | 35c | 57.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 48.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 48.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 41.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 37c | 41.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 79c | 41.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked Yes | 26c | 40.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 34c | 40.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 38.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 35c | 37.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 37.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 37.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 33.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 31.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 40c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 78c | 24.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 21.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 79c | 17.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 80c | 13.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.