Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8bf4f843fec34ab28cc263e8e4e5809b085756d2e1f9f7ebd450311f6a82d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 18c | 6,551$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.93 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 26c | 6,197$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.13 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 3,597$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 16c | 3,396$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.22 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.61 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed No | 13c | 2,640$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.36 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 15c | 2,607$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.85 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 68c | 2,276$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.06 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 21c | 2,102$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.88 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 63c | 2,020$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.56 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 12c | 1,975$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 7c | 1,913$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 3c | 1,851$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,741$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.29 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 12c | 1,649$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 13c | 1,646$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked No | 4c | 1,497$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,400$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.69 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 34c | 1,349$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.24 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 29c | 1,277$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.25 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 14c | 1,009$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 51c | 999.88$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.33 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…7287backed Yes | 75c | 999.83$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 10c | 980.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 846$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 772.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 74c | 744.38$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 33c | 733.36$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.17 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 28c | 718.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 22c | 695.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 39c | 573.44$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.95 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 52c | 573.11$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.89 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 53c | 564.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 14c | 483.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 59c | 453.92$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 52c | 437.07$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.07 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 12c | 428.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 50c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 4c | 384.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 73c | 379.99$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 357.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 6c | 350.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 4c | 315.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 63c | 313.79$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 276.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 50c | 254.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 4c | 241.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 66c | 222.21$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 6c | 218.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 211.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 30c | 187$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 67c | 180$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 75c | 174.87$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 174.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked No | 21c | 166.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 160.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 147.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 78c | 140.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 58c | 137.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 52c | 128.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 17c | 127.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked No | 19c | 124.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 35c | 121.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 119.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 75c | 113.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 54c | 103.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 51c | 100.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…126bbacked No | 20c | 96.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed No | 21c | 95.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed No | 23c | 94.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 26c | 84.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…4fe5backed No | 26c | 83.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…00eabacked Yes | 74c | 78.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…4486backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 50c | 74.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 67c | 70.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6bd6backed Yes | 63c | 65.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0da…9b36backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4010backed Yes | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 56c | 51.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 71c | 50.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 43c | 50.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.