Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564e2db0c0691b4a56364e98ac78039841505aaf65b0ddbe843a6f72bbfccec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,166$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 12c | 7,562$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.8 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,068$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.16 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 14c | 4,540$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.7 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 7c | 4,302$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.32 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 3,988$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed Yes | 14c | 3,520$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,514$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,497$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 3,388$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,847$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,766$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 2,734$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.62 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 7c | 2,461$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 2,243$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 9c | 2,045$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,938$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,856$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 1,741$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 11c | 1,615$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,445$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,141$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 17c | 1,080$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 7c | 1,061$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…1ecdbacked Yes | 12c | 812.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 789.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 15c | 763$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 21c | 749.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 746.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 22c | 744.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.22 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 7c | 687.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 8c | 655.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 640$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 600.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…09f2backed Yes | 8c | 598.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 29c | 598.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 4c | 551.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 9c | 535.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 4c | 530$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…e98bbacked Yes | 3c | 490.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 19c | 480.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 21c | 466.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 13c | 443.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 10c | 433.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…bc67backed Yes | 3c | 425.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 5c | 413.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 411.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 12c | 367.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 10c | 331.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 305.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 3c | 291.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 7c | 276.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 12c | 267.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…08a4backed Yes | 8c | 255.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 8c | 246.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 230.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 10c | 229.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 75c | 224$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 13c | 217.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8114…085abacked Yes | 10c | 209.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 127 | 14.2%18 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 205.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 9c | 204.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 7c | 199.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…1a08backed No | 78c | 194.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 10c | 190.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 11c | 170.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 10c | 163.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 8c | 163.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 9c | 143.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 8c | 138.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 10c | 135.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…926dbacked Yes | 17c | 114.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 25c | 112.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 78c | 109.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 14c | 105.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 27c | 103.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 12c | 94.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 61.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4010backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 26c | 45.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 42c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.