Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3545f139bf6636ead8359e6fa04591e5e1c1e4ded06e553d7b1d862e1d81a78

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $123,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,263 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	5,826$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.18	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	24c	4,479$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.27	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	22c	4,007$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.43	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	13c	3,491$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.91	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	8c	3,062$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.21	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No	69c	2,419$1,669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.95	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	18c	2,147$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.07	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	17c	2,045$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.56	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	1,919$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.42	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	9c	1,622$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.22	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	18c	1,605$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.68	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	11c	1,422$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.55	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes	21c	1,400$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.24	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	23c	1,293$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.48	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	12c	1,228$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.53	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No	80c	1,100$878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.5	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	5c	1,032$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.56	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes	10c	920.18$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.76	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	919.8$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.3	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7822…46c2backed Yes	15c	889.08$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	795.23$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.34	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	29c	794.24$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.33	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	23c	789.41$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.48	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2856…1ecdbacked Yes	12c	752.38$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.14	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes	14c	736.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	13c	714$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.82	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	79c	706.35$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.3	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	690.63$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.8	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8907…b9a3backed Yes	11c	684.41$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	21c	668.02$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.91	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	629.96$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.69	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes	21c	601.87$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.56	221	42.5%94 W · 127 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes	31c	600$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	11c	590.42$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.5	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	10c	564.68$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	79c	561.69$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.78	388	48.5%188 W · 200 L	+16.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes	17c	556.53$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes	11c	553.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.94	105	21.9%23 W · 82 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	12c	549.6$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	10c	531.32$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	11c	525.42$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8102…5137backed Yes	10c	504.62$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.35	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No	73c	500.43$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.34	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	12c	487.69$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	30c	447.21$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.89	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	16c	412.23$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.49	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdea3…2266backed Yes	21c	400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.59	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-27%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	19c	379.38$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.52	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes	31c	336.18$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	167	41.3%69 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	315.59$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.77	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes	13c	313.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	140	50%70 W · 70 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	17c	308.22$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.41	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	3c	303.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	11c	302.22$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.54	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	8c	299.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf829…0688backed Yes	14c	299.28$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.87	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a9…ab36backed Yes	17c	295.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	24c	254.1$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.28	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…83d6backed No	78c	250$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.5	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	13c	247$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked No	77c	214.69$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.4	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes	9c	213.24$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.94	159	28.3%45 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes	15c	208.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.96	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Yes	27c	203.57$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.25	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	15c	199.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	5c	190$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes	13c	186.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	210	34.8%73 W · 137 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes	6c	169.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	17c	154.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	19c	154.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked No	59c	145.9$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.06	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	13c	137.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	79c	131$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.51	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No	80c	130$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	154	55.2%85 W · 69 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6870…a01bbacked No	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac6…0465backed Yes	15c	129.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	76c	127.09$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.19	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes	20c	109.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	14c	104.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes	12c	104.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf9…dbb9backed Yes	19c	103.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes	16c	103.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	22c	101.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	195	27.7%54 W · 141 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…26ffbacked No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a3…4fe5backed Yes	16c	99.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes	26c	98.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	57	66.7%38 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes	13c	91.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	79c	90$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	241	55.6%134 W · 107 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	14c	81.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes	32c	79.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	78c	74.5$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	167	50.3%84 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x101d…cad2backed Yes	16c	74.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	23c	74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ed…a1d5backed Yes	31c	70.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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