Weather · resolved market
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d8e40cbe5d57a01fb7771ef3470110f9d42e9fb904890d098b966b9695e8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 37c | 758$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 4c | 313.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 283.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 186$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed Yes | 12c | 180.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 144$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 111.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…ecdfbacked Yes | 67c | 60.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 25c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 36c | 36.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…618bbacked No | 40c | 33.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 32.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 70c | 24.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in July?this page
- Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in July?No won
- Will London have between 70-80mm of precipitation in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.