Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b10e334c16691042f5363ee8eddaa594977a9ba9f61c24ec32b32b150cb61fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,562$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 981.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 6c | 741.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 35c | 633.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.75 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 600.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 30c | 428.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 68c | 411.39$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 274.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 220$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 208.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 31c | 204.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 6c | 179.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 152.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 134.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 126.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 12c | 109.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 20c | 107.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 107.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 103.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 27c | 98.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 98.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 97.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 91.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 87.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 85.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 84.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 80.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 74.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 60.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 58.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 28c | 50.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 48.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 47.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 47.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 44.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 43.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 77c | 40.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…acaebacked Yes | 28c | 39.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…4c2dbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 74c | 36.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 65c | 36.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 31.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 27.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 26.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 23.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 73c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 21.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 66c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.