Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9985d3e214081042d4fdd3f129b729d1abf1d12c04f2c9648ad561c89c738c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 2,952$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.94 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 4c | 1,085$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 1,044$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 876.22$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 638.06$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 67c | 484.75$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 17c | 455.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.48 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 42c | 427.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 421.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 9c | 420.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 396.25$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 381.68$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 18c | 324.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 323.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 63c | 311.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed No | 67c | 275.82$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 80c | 228.62$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 220.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 73c | 209$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 65c | 199.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 194.78$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 194$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 191.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 182.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 181.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 15c | 176.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.95 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 170.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 48c | 169.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 159.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 156$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 147.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 145.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 143.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 26c | 143.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 140.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 139.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 136.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 129.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 112.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 38c | 111.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 98.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 79c | 98.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 91.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 89.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 87.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…6f15backed Yes | 18c | 85.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…94fdbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 79.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 75c | 73.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 71.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 48c | 71.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 70.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 76c | 63.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 17c | 62.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 31c | 62.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 52.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 19c | 52.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 28c | 49.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 41c | 48.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 47.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 46.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 23c | 46.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 45.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5d04backed No | 37c | 40.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 36c | 37.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 36.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 78c | 36.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 36.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd7…d588backed Yes | 33c | 32.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 32.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 44c | 28.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 27.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 79c | 25.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 23.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 23.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 65c | 23.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 50c | 20.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 55c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.