Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3df9b3cb9e2c9bb8df8a89947696dbb943127ae77526bc080a9882b1f80dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 2c | 3,995$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 633.7$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 51c | 590.37$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.53 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 41c | 540.2$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 51c | 444.71$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 426.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 358.28$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 343.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 42c | 307$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 260.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 240.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 33c | 231.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 57c | 220.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 13c | 212.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 201.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 183.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 178.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 19c | 175.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 36c | 169.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 166.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 151.84$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 150.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed No | 58c | 149.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 42c | 147.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 44c | 147.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 135.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 133.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked No | 79c | 131.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 129.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 127.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 35c | 126.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 75c | 124.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 40c | 124.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 41c | 122.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 122.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 41c | 118.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 39c | 115.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 110.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 56c | 103.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 54c | 102.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 101.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 100.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…26f6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 56c | 99.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed Yes | 43c | 85.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Yes | 55c | 81.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 78.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 78.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 60c | 76.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 55c | 76.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 76.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 64c | 71.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 43c | 64.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 53c | 63.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 60.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 58.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 44c | 56.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…bf72backed Yes | 37c | 54.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 51.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 50.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 44c | 50.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 36c | 49.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 48.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 62c | 48.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…6479backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 45.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 63c | 44.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…acaebacked Yes | 34c | 43.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 43.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 48c | 43.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 46c | 43.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 51c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 48c | 40.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 35c | 40.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed Yes | 39c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 36.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 36.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 35.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 40°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.