TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,244
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,244 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c536.82$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No57c396.59$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.472,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No54c388.32$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No78c383.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.159976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed Yes46c216.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015841.8%66 W · 92 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes22c182.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes45c179.96$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.488245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c166.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.835,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes64c155.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7132440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes19c149.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No67c117$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.593,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes35c116.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.262,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes44c108.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.81,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes46c105.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4822740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c105.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.277,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c103.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.919,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.285,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c86.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c82.62$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No57c81.85$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.092,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.825935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a2…e032backed Yes37c77.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.625457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes38c70.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No55c69.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.72,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes45c69.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes48c68.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.658350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c68.33$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No63c64.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.941,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9156backed Yes39c63.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes24c61.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No61c60.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.231,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No77c57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes49c52.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6124531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2392761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.521339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes41c48.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No51c47.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0974926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c47.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.945,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No55c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1527247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes25c46.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4756322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No66c45.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.773,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes34c45.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6117644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c45.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.462,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes47c43.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4518043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No63c42.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.651,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No48c41.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.713,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No64c40.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.612070%14 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes31c40.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.416642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefe7…8990backed No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+82%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1880735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.428762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes48c38.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c38.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.564,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1486…cef3backed No76c38.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.231471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No55c36.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.042,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed No76c32.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.691464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42aa…7d26backed Yes47c29.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148246.3%38 W · 44 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c28.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.824,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No62c27.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.582,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes48c27.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1419039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda67…0b91backed No76c25.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e3…eb51backed No76c25.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.15977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30af…2c34backed Yes48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes48c23.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.272,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Yes64c23.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157143.7%31 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No65c22.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No65c22.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes47c22.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No54c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No73c20.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5520250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No54c20.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…92d6backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.45862.1%36 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.554461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ab…bedcbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No69c17.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5228035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No66c16.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.712,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.