Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615eb586894a95ba29f3c0483438ef8b744eb6af61a4fac9f82b36514e636706
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 60c | 554$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.46 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 435.31$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 37c | 344.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 324.17$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 269.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 260.43$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 259.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 254.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 236.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 42c | 216.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 213.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 203.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 203.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 180$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 164.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 140.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 136$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 48c | 120.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 50c | 119.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 113.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 98.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 94.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 90.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 83.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 81.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 38c | 78.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 78.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 77.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 45c | 77.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 58c | 74.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 72.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 71.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 68.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 37c | 65.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 49c | 63.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 62c | 63.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 61.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 55.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 55.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 54.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 67c | 48.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 47.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 47.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 43c | 47.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 60c | 43.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 43.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 47c | 42.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 41.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 59c | 40.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 60c | 39.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…dcc0backed Yes | 29c | 36.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 34.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 74c | 29.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…68cbbacked No | 74c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 26.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 25.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 72c | 24.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 53c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 59c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 56c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 59c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed Yes | 65c | 19.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 59c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.