MLB · resolved market
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07edfd2e7f79bc4752516cfb105793d13b06388858a72df675d31ff05d86fb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 26c | 215,096$56,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,759 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked No | 76c | 73,900$56,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,603.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 77c | 33,695$25,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,814.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…4affbacked No | 69c | 30,729$21,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,567.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 77c | 23,259$17,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,363.79 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 77c | 14,815$11,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.19 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8c00backed Yes | 23c | 11,417$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 64c | 9,680$6,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,188.71 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked Yes | 45c | 8,653$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 24c | 8,486$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…18e4backed No | 79c | 7,455$5,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 5,877$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 70c | 5,771$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.99 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 77c | 4,784$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes | 23c | 4,454$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked No | 77c | 4,325$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.24 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 64c | 3,927$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.81 | 370 | 32.7%121 W · 249 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 21c | 3,738$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.97 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 33c | 2,519$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.12 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 78c | 2,380$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…058fbacked No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 23c | 1,905$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Yes | 23c | 1,580$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 42c | 1,519$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 1,454$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.83 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 63c | 1,356$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.55 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked No | 75c | 1,176$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.22 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 31c | 1,117$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 1,054$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 79c | 1,000$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…68ebbacked Yes | 23c | 972.17$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…9207backed Yes | 23c | 865.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 805.36$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 786.66$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 785.13$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.93 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 753.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 746.46$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.09 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…dd88backed Yes | 21c | 705.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Yes | 23c | 700$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 698.15$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 52c | 695.83$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 52c | 672.7$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.29 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 654.28$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 632.4$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed No | 65c | 620.63$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 30c | 610.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 607.55$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 596.02$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed No | 75c | 594.39$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -15.4wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 592$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 572.16$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3232…18aebacked No | 76c | 568.47$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 550.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed Yes | 23c | 540.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes | 49c | 514.74$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 76c | 500$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…8ceebacked Yes | 23c | 500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 489.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 40c | 466.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 33c | 456.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 445.91$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 22c | 430.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…8929backed Yes | 24c | 420.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…75a8backed Yes | 24c | 418.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Yes | 23c | 408.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 404.13$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed No | 73c | 381.7$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…573abacked Yes | 19c | 373.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34e…cc77backed Yes | 23c | 346.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 335$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…d57fbacked Yes | 22c | 334.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed Yes | 23c | 309.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c6dfbacked Yes | 22c | 299.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 61c | 290$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…c1e5backed Yes | 27c | 266.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 23c | 255.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 63c | 245.57$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Yes | 42c | 241.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 36c | 222.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…416ebacked Yes | 24c | 211.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…69f6backed Yes | 23c | 210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Yes | 23c | 209.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 28c | 199.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed No | 57c | 193.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 75c | 187.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 77c | 182.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed Yes | 27c | 181.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 178.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…a59dbacked Yes | 23c | 172.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 71c | 171.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Yes | 24c | 170.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…ac5bbacked Yes | 24c | 167.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 158.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…0d2ebacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…23c5backed Yes | 23c | 146.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 56c | 132.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.