MLB · resolved market
Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33dc6492ec476dc7f2aa83c4738de362f666896aa49fff100a005dae18075172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked Yes | 10c | 50,015$4,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,889.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…2dd7backed Yes | 9c | 11,243$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 10c | 3,047$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.59 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…2e67backed Yes | 9c | 2,750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 6c | 1,596$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…dd88backed Yes | 10c | 939.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 9c | 766.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 10c | 604.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Yes | 10c | 503$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…3d70backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7f85backed Yes | 10c | 440$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -8.4wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…40fabacked Yes | 8c | 253.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…bcd4backed Yes | 10c | 211.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Yes | 10c | 188.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…b1fbbacked Yes | 10c | 144.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…86bcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.