MLB · resolved market
Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fac5f062aec33f5675feedc5d15379ebc83401c41447feb884ec7318ecb5064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 11c | 136,527$15,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,119.52 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes | 11c | 8,804$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,014$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…6920backed Yes | 11c | 1,674$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 14c | 970.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked Yes | 9c | 600$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7f85backed Yes | 12c | 524.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…836abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 23.5%50 W · 163 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…8ceebacked Yes | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 8c | 487.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 8c | 420.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 15c | 302.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 8c | 287.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…868dbacked Yes | 10c | 218.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 11c | 112.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes | 11c | 112$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…31ecbacked Yes | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…86bcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.