MLB · resolved market
Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadb240c24436349598eeea057fef1c623c1fe92463910a993867b5946e1fd67a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes | 13c | 30,229$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,929.74 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 12c | 17,499$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.78 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 13c | 3,846$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,460$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes | 13c | 926.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 824.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7f85backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 11c | 225.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…f8c3backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…23c5backed Yes | 14c | 146.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 12c | 97.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Yes | 13c | 78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.