MLB · resolved market
Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x872a7759176bf697011224a3072d30402bc47f3b8f9bd2e5e49b5f17df64bced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 13c | 121,504$15,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,378.58 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,169$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.54 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…4affbacked No | 79c | 3,632$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 76c | 2,946$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.23 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,300$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…ce51backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…04debacked Yes | 21c | 943.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ab6dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 824.53$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.24 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…2e67backed Yes | 8c | 816.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 770.34$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 725.9$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 665.17$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 644.65$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 38c | 600.1$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 582.17$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.47 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 8c | 520.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 492.03$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 482.96$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 469.23$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 434.55$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 426.02$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 415.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 406.29$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 15c | 366.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5069…91ecbacked Yes | 5c | 321.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…836abacked Yes | 21c | 299.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 213 | 23.5%50 W · 163 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 14c | 230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 14c | 215.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 21c | 215.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…0a08backed Yes | 24c | 207.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 61c | 205.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 20c | 200.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 100.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Yes | 30c | 67.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…57b7backed Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 76.2%99 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed No | 73c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.