MLB · resolved market
Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x829b7ce50a085a49b8e95fefc52cbae4767a56fea2e334bfa41246afce906251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 14c | 64,004$8,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,131.68 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 65c | 22,513$14,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,923.85 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 19c | 13,360$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,838.44 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 63c | 10,902$6,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,852.14 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 12c | 7,063$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,224.32 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Yes | 12c | 6,024$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,323.84 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes | 12c | 4,083$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,597.52 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 14c | 3,948$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…a137backed Yes | 12c | 3,626$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.21 | 319 | 58.6%187 W · 132 L | +27.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Yes | 10c | 1,739$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.43 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,672$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 1,599$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 37c | 1,330$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.69 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,325$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.32 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 42c | 1,312$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3818…c72dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 1,066$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 1,065$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.79 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 68c | 1,063$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.42 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 1,048$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 987.13$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 923.59$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…04debacked Yes | 23c | 910.65$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 879.02$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.83 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 858.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Yes | 11c | 819.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.85 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 21c | 684.43$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.43 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 49c | 639.53$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 505.52$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 504.21$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.94 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f00…2f63backed Yes | 16c | 496.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Yes | 21c | 465.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 457.36$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…75a8backed Yes | 12c | 447.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…13abbacked Yes | 12c | 434.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 72c | 429$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 415.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 14c | 354.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 24c | 342.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 17c | 308.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 282.53$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed Yes | 9c | 264.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 245.38$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…3f23backed Yes | 47c | 219.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 14c | 217.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +312.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 207.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 59c | 205.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97da…d63bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…4699backed Yes | 40c | 199.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…40fabacked Yes | 49c | 186.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 73c | 176.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…1cf2backed Yes | 47c | 169.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…71a2backed Yes | 12c | 164.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 11c | 135.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 28c | 127.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…c872backed Yes | 13c | 109.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 13c | 96.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…19c4backed Yes | 12c | 88.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 14c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 174 | 17.2%30 W · 144 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…31ecbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…c5ccbacked Yes | 18c | 71.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…80a4backed Yes | 51c | 67.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…7af5backed Yes | 21c | 67.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +369.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 20c | 61.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…4affbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 20c | 55.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 20c | 55.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…19ccbacked Yes | 22c | 53.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa18…682ebacked No | 58c | 50.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…1ac3backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 44c | 30.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.