MLB · resolved market
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0746191eb22cdc5a23e90d3ec4b02282f71f1f9ef7306cac081262f3a2df5f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 16c | 149,546$23,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,622.96 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked Yes | 3c | 90,963$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes | 15c | 48,328$7,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,249.13 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Yes | 16c | 10,837$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.56 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,993$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 14c | 1,786$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 16c | 1,163$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…4c15backed Yes | 13c | 794$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 708.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Yes | 14c | 655.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…4881backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…8f92backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 69.4%100 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 13c | 367$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…75a8backed Yes | 15c | 366.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 14c | 336.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…5f86backed Yes | 15c | 189.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…23c5backed Yes | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…868dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…f09bbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will Ben Rice win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Jordan Walker win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
- Will Junior Caminero win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.