Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83da2ffe8a66c2f6fc9ef06c214c3ba22ec25058b7744973124323aa7cfd3096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 332.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 275.23$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 177.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 177.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 37c | 153.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 40c | 144.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 123.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 12c | 119.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 105.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 105.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 88.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 39c | 77.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 76.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 69.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 68.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 66.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 60c | 46.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 45.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 41.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 38.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 33.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…c390backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 31.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…4fedbacked No | 67c | 29.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 78c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 63c | 22.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 63c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 54c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 67c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 66c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.