Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc363e4684df7de0839888317ddd89a5196fb04b82ecaaa4aa60285f03afa40ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 44c | 1,658$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 993.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 5c | 713.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 11c | 669.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.45 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 657.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 437.51$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 7c | 412.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 24c | 381.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 365.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 19c | 305.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 270.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 232.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 11c | 231.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 225.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 12c | 222.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 181.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 171.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 19c | 168.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 10c | 146.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 144.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 8c | 141.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 140.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 9c | 134.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 132.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 79c | 114.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 20c | 112.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 34c | 112.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 13c | 103.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 102.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 25c | 97.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 92.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 24c | 87.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked No | 26c | 86.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 77c | 84.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 84.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 14c | 83.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 13c | 82.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 17c | 80.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 20c | 75.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 16c | 74.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 25c | 63.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 56.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 46.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 64c | 46.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6411…6b97backed No | 71c | 35.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 29.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 25.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.