Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611b793f8ab6ad580876b9d31b0737dfa1b4d55cf307fb6db0d0bdfd1291ac41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 505.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 417.45$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 378.96$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 339.91$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 291.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 184.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 166.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 78c | 158.38$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 154.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 153.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 22c | 150.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 50c | 149.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 139.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 10c | 128.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…9342backed No | 80c | 122.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 116.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 115.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 16c | 112.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 98.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 15c | 91.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 91.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 85.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 80.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 76.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 38c | 75.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 67.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 62.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 22c | 59.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 58.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 69c | 56.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…c390backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 25c | 48.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 77c | 45.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 44.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 41.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 37.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed No | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 37.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 35.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 40c | 34.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 31.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 29.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 77c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.