Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x762de2a389db1516e0c3e42e12af0484e9ebab6f89102945a20fa81a07631d41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 55c | 533.96$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.97 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 277.03$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 238.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 51c | 151.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 57c | 151$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 143$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 34c | 113.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 34c | 107.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…4056backed Yes | 34c | 88.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 34c | 81.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 60c | 76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 73.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed No | 73c | 55.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…fd3abacked Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3d…a814backed Yes | 35c | 36.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 60c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 48c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…f437backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?this page
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% or less in June?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in June?Yes won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.5% in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.