Us Midterms · resolved market
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3317d88f9c89790542a268c62914df649ff8fedff5da950905c30fe62ac9b04f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 63c | 796.47$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.84 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 11c | 692.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 538.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 27c | 524.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 38c | 255$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 73c | 245.49$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 193.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 529 | 11.7%62 W · 467 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked No | 44c | 160.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 12c | 136.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 75c | 115.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 50c | 78.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 51.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 704 | 15.2%107 W · 597 L | -110.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 368 | 22%81 W · 287 L | -27.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…eb56backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 161 | 45.3%73 W · 88 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 53c | 42.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…1862backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 77c | 34.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 346 | 34.7%120 W · 226 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked Yes | 68c | 30.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 68cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 55c | 30.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 40c | 29.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 63c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 79c | 12.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31?this page
- Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by August 30?Yes won
- Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.