Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81df4cdc6947b4302333d75656f77405403af7baad974c61320abfd868b0e1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 21c | 1,833$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 73c | 888.71$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.65 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 320.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 226.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 205.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 32c | 178.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 78c | 132$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 77c | 105.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 32c | 104.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 19c | 103.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked No | 78c | 49.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 78c | 49.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…c657backed No | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed No | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 43.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…4cfcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?this page
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?Yes won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.