Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f004d457c2e8c1a7612bc29b2eb5740103f98782138edc7242ef2287d8a2c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 13c | 649.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 509.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 276.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 31c | 179.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 155.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 122.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…47d4backed Yes | 39c | 92.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 73c | 63.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 58.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in June?this page
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?Yes won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% in June?No won
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.